AI Timelines: What Do Experts in Artificial Intelligence Expect for the Future?
... The chart shows the answers of 352 experts. This is from the most recent study by Katja Grace and her colleagues, conducted in the summer of 2022.
Experts were asked when they believe there is a 50% chance that human-level AI exists.3Human-level AI was defined as unaided machines being able to accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers. More information about the study can be found in the fold-out box at the end of the text on this page.4 ...
As highlighted in the annotations, half of the experts gave a date before 2061, and 90% gave a date within the next 100 years. ...
Expert surveys are one piece of information to consider when we think about the future of AI, but we should not overstate the results of these surveys. Experts in a particular technology are not necessarily experts in making predictions about the future of that technology. ...
See the full story here: https://singularityhub.com/2022/12/18/ai-timelines-what-do-experts-in-artificial-intelligence-expect-for-the-future/
