philip lelyveld The world of entertainment technology

Could Artificial General Intelligence Adoption Start a Civil War in America?

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The bitter irony that educated elites could be rendered obsolete by the advanced technologies that they once hailed may well inspire a sense of just desserts, especially among the workers who have long borne the heavy cost of “technological progress.” But however much one may be tempted to relish the misfortunes of the well-to-do, the political repercussions of such an outcome are potentially catastrophic for the entire country.

Political scientist Peter Turchin has provided the most thorough explanation of why a collapse in elite employment could be disastrous.  Turchin’s research, which builds on the work of George Mason University political scientist Jack Goldstone, shows that the combination of popular immiseration and elite overproduction has often resulted in a breadown of the state. Popular immiseration is when non-elites (bottom 90% of income earners) experience stagnating or declining living standards.  Immiseration raises discontent, lowers trust in the government, and elevates the potential for anti-system political mobilization. Elite overproduction is when the supply of positions that support an elite lifestyle is greatly outnumbered by aspirants to those positions. Because elites have access to resources and networks in key sectors of state power, including the military, government, and economy, their opposition to the state can pose a serious threat. Frustrated elites can become "counter elites" who exploit popular grievances to lead rebellions or revolutions against authorities. Turchin and Goldstone grimly warn that in past societies facing such predicaments, about 75% of the cases resulted in some sort of political collapse, such as civil war or revolution. ...

 Technological innovation has almost always had an “alignment” problem in this sense: some groups have invariably gained while others lost. The advent of AGI will differ only in the identities of the potential gainers and losers. The promise of super productivity through widespread adoption of AGI could well be a boon to mankind. But without a careful consideration of the potential costs, the potential for disaster suggests more thought is urgently needed to better understand the technology’s attendant risks, as well as its promised opportunities.

See the full story here: https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/02/25/could-artificial-general-intelligence-adoption-start-a-civil-war-in-america/