philip lelyveld The world of entertainment technology

Why Convergence-Of-Evidence That Predicts AGI Will Outdo Scientific Consensus By AI Experts

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The good news about scientific consensus includes these four salient points:

• (1) Scientific consensus is based on collective insight versus individual-only opinion.
• (2) Scientific consensus gives clarity and stability to what we know about scientific facets.
• (3) Scientific consensus serves as a building block for constructing holistic scientific theories.
• (4) Scientific consensus is flexible and can adapt as our understanding of the world changes.

The bad news about scientific consensus includes these four crucial points:

• (1) Scientific consensus can turn out to be wrong and yet we were earlier led to assume it was unquestionably right.
• (2) Scientific consensus is somewhat insidious since it is hard to stridently disagree with a consensus viewpoint.
• (3) Scientific consensus might be reached simply due to bird-of-a-feather convention and not due to hardcore scientific reasoning.
• (4) Scientific consensus at times becomes dogma that no one dares refute.

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Convergence-of-Evidence aka Consilience

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We dutifully seek out evidence from a multitude of sources and use that evidence to essentially converge on a scientific posture or status. It is best if the sources are independent of each other. I say that because a bunch of sources that are all from the same drinking well aren’t going to up the ante on being a healthy convergence. The convergence would simply be the same regardless that you had amassed a ton of evidence.

The idea is that we can put our shoulders behind a convergence-of-evidence that comes from different sources that each arrived at their positions via different and separate means. ...

Convergence-of-Evidence And AGI

This brings us to the big reveal, namely that in addition to AI luminaires having their predictions about the attainment of AGI, plus having a form of scientific consensus via the use of AI expert surveys, we ought to also include convergence-of-evidence toward AGI into the mix too. Sadly, there isn’t much of a movement yet in the AGI arena towards a convergence-of-evidence or consilience. I am optimistic that we will gradually and inexorably get there. ...

I offer a brief sketch of what kind of evidence we would want to encompass in a convergence-of-evidence framework for identifying the nearness of attaining AGI. There would need to be a concerted effort to land on firm metrics and standardize the approach. If a standard isn’t formulated, everyone will be hawking their particular set of evidence, and it will be a chaotic mess. ...

See the full story here: https://www.forbes.com/sites/lanceeliot/2025/05/06/framework-for-convergence-of-evidence-that-we-are-nearing-agi-will-outdo-scientific-consensus-by-ai-experts/