NAB Preview: Who Is Betting on Ultra HD?
A new report from market research firm Park Associates projects that in 10 to 12 years, at least 80 percent of U.S. households will have 4K TVs. Even so, skeptics -- including technology leaders in Hollywood and the broadcast television world -- worry that 4K isn't a significant enough leap to justify the cost to both consumers and content providers.
"There's got to be a compelling enough reason to move the whole consumer marketplace, distribution chain and postproduction chain completely over to 4K," says Society of Motion Picture and Television Engineers standards director Howard Lukk, who also serves as vp production technology at Walt Disney Studios. "And that's why I think most people are saying we need more than more pixels."
The loudest buzz in Hollywood surrounds high dynamic range (HDR) imagery, which expands the range between the darkest and brightest images a TV can produce. HDR proponents contend it is a more noticeable upgrade for less cost than 4K. Groups such as SMPTE and MovieLabs (a nonprofit research and development venture started by the six major studios) have begun work on HDR standards, though the technology still is in early development.
Then there's 8K, which produces a picture with resolution a whopping 16 times greater than HD, and glasses-free 3DTV, which proponents hope will restart the home 3D market. There's also a sizable group of engineers from both manufacturers and Hollywood who argue the best option is a combination of upgrades, including HDR, high frame rates and a wider range of colors.
As for HDR, Dolby and Technicolor are among the early proponents that will show this technology at NAB. Rob Marshall's best picture winner Chicago (2002) recently was remastered in a new HDR format called Dolby Vision, and sources confirm that multiple studios are considering completing new movies in Dolby Vision this year.
"People are trading immediacy over definition," says Zeebox co-founder and CTOAnthony Rose, the former BBC exec widely credited with the design of the BBC iPlayer. He believes "4K is as inevitable as HD" but -- at least for now -- "I think people will choose the show that's available when and where they want it over the one that is available in super-duper quality that needs a whole chain of new devices to watch."
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