Churchill Club Top 10 Tech Trends 2015 Debate
(From Steve Jurvetson's Facebook post)
Churchill Club Top 10 Tech Trends 2015 Debate
“What new trends will emerge in the next several years with the potential for explosive growth in about five years' time?” Five VCs are chosen by the Churchill Club to submit two Tech Trends, aggregating to a Top 10 list. We then debate the issues on stage and the audience votes in real time.
I have done this for ten years now, and it gets progressively more difficult to come up with two new trends each year that are important, and non-obvious, and likely to come true.
This year, my fellow panelists were Bill Gurley of Benchmark, Jenny Lee of GGV, Rebecca Lynn of Canvas, and Shervin Pishevar of Shepa Ventures.
Here is some of the press coverage:
http://blogs.wsj.com/…/robocars-and-hyperloops-10-tech-pre…/
http://www.forbes.com/…/five-top-venture-capitalists…/print/
http://www.eweek.com/…/ambient-computing-disruptive-banking…
http://www.forbes.com/…/05/22/five-top-vcs-predict-the-fut…/
and the full video: https://youtu.be/qQIu5UO6OZ8
Our 2015 Top 10 list
1. On-Demand Ambient Computing.
On-Demand Ambient Computing driven by AI will usher in a world of invisible computing that will drive efficiencies across many industries. Growth will come from API's/algorithms across mobile platforms; AI will predict human intent and deliver items/information at the speed of human thought. [Shervin Pishevar]
2. Traditional Banks Will Continue Losing Share to Startups while Bitcoin Fades in Relevance.
Financial-services institutions will continue to be disintermediated, and will either act as the back-end infrastructure or co-exist as they do in the Lending Club model. Meanwhile, Bitcoin as a currency and remittance solution will lose steam. [Rebecca Lynn]
3. The Virtual Me.
Advances in hardware and sensors and the adoption of connected devices will create an explosion of personal data in the next 5 years. With increased data processing capabilities and smarter predictive software, all this data will be aggregated into personal digital profiles – the virtual you – which will know even more about you than you do. [Jenny Lee]
4. The Skynet Economy: broadband access for the unconnected billions.
From thousands of satellites orbiting around the poles, and new airborne transponders, the entire Earth will be bathed in broadband, bringing an unprecedented influx of human talent to the global economy. [Steve Jurvetson]
5. The End of the Auto Nation.
For the better part of a century, the United States has designed its cities around the notion of individual car ownership. This has resulted in massive waste, congestion, pollution, long commute times, remarkably underutilized capital assets, and over 30,000 deaths per year. Suburban sprawl reached its ultimate limit, and the trends are all rebounding around a new urbanization. [Bill Gurley]
6. 5th Mode of Transportation.
5th Mode of Transportation will be unlocked in the next 5 years. Technologies like Hyperloop will skip over 19th and 20th century transportation modes and do what wireless mobile communication did to fixed line telecommunications in places like Africa. [Shervin Pishevar]
7. Reemergence of Women in Tech.
In the next 5 years, 50% of computer-science students will be women – surpassing the previous high set in 1984. This means you’ll increasingly see more female technology startup founders and Fortune-500 CEOs. [Rebecca Lynn]
8. The Economy of Me.
By 2020, mobile will bring the next 2 billion people online and make the online economy more powerful than the offline. This shift will breed decentralized business models. Commerce and services will skip the middle man and revolve around the individual consumer. Welcome to the personal economy. [Jenny Lee]
9. Rise of the Robocars: Driven by a Machine [the winning trend].
By 2020 we will no longer debate the inevitability of autonomous electric vehicles when we first experience the convenience and efficiency of urban autonomous driving services. [Steve Jurvetson]
10. The Native Mobile Application Platform Dominates the “Mobile Web”.
Consumers drastically prefer mobile applications to the mobile web because they are WAY better. The majority of incremental Internet users will be exclusively on smartphones. The aging search/browser platform will be stifled as a fertile ground for new innovation. [Bill Gurley]
Following up on our debate about the inevitability of autonomous electric vehicles, the IMF just released a study tabulating the subsidy that fossil fuel companies receive: over $14 billion per day. "The IMF calls the revelation shocking and says the figure is an extremely robust estimate of the true cost of fossil fuels. The $5.3tn subsidy estimated for 2015 is greater than the total health spending of all the world’s governments." — form http://www.theguardian.com/…/fossil-fuel-companies-getting-…
KYOCERA & 3D Systems Partner Further, Offering Full Color ProJet 4500 3D Printer to UK & Ireland
The key is that the 3D Systems ProJet 4500 provides the power 3D Systems is known for instilling in its 3D printers, along with the unique ability to produce flexible and strong parts in full color. Users on all levels can carry complex concepts to the digital phase and then 3D print impressive prototypes for product verification and far, far more.
See the full press release here: http://3dprint.com/69335/kyocera-3d-systems-projet/
What Google Just Announced Is a Bombshell
What Google just announced at its I/O developer conference is a bombshell for the future of the company. For years the search giant has witnessed the chipping away of its core product — search — due to the rise of mobile applications and their siloed-off experiences. Users are engaging more and more with programs that have no attachment and often no requirement for search on the broad web, and as a result Google's position as the owner of our habits, interests, and needs across the internet has looked increasingly at risk.
The company demoed a new feature within its Android OS which allows the Now service (a dashboard of notifications focused on your life and interests) to plug in as a layer that essentially hovers above any app running on your phone or tablet. Activated by the home button, it's always there. This means that you can get contextual search information around almost anything you're doing, provided there is text and data that Google can pull from the app itself. And the best part is that developers won't have to make any changes to their existing software to allow the new service — dubbed Now on Tap — to bring search and context into the user's view.
This is a major move for two reasons. The first is that it really brings Google back to a place of dominance as the glue that holds your digital life together.
But secondly, it starts to show how Google can be an interconnecting layer between the apps themselves — a kind of neutral staging ground between one action and another.
See the full story here: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-28/what-google-just-announced-is-a-bombshell
Virtual Reality Named Next Mega Tech Theme by Piper Jaffray
Virtual reality headsets and content will be “the next mega tech theme” and a market worth more than $60 billion in a decade, according to Piper Jaffray Cos.
“The diverse applications of VR in combination with accelerating technological improvements will lead to mainstream adoption over the next 10 years,” Piper Jaffray analysts including Gene Munster and Erinn Murphy wrote in a May report.
Because keyboard and mouse input isn’t optimal for use with VR goggles, there will be a new market for peripheral devices that bring users’ hands and feet into virtual reality, according to Piper Jaffray. Haptic devices that give physical feedback from interactions in virtual space will follow.
Gaming will be the first application, because of a user base that already owns PCs and consoles powerful enough to handle VR content, according to the report. Content will expand to include courtside seats at a basketball game, 360-degree movies and professional applications from hospitals to courtrooms.
Oculus buys Surreal Vision, letting company make virtual reality worlds out of the real one
[Philip Lelyveld note: put another way, Oculus buys an AR company.]
Oculus Rift has bought British company Surreal Vision, leading to hopes that the two companies might develop kit that allows for virtual
reality versions of the real world.
Many other companies that are working on virtual reality, like Microsoft, have developed ways that their headsets can see the real world, map it, and then place it in the virtual reality one. That means that digital images can be laid on top of real ones, such as putting putting a Facebook wall onto a real one.
Such uses for the technology
has been demonstrated by one of those involved in the company. Surreal Vision was founded by three researchers from Imperial College London.
Tackling Tech: Why Virtual Reality Will Become Reality for the NFL
Determining if VR use by QBs definitely improves their play is a high priority. Calling VR a ‘game changer' before it's gotten into the pro football game is premature as were the original hype of being the next big mainstream tech thing decades ago.
Introducing a tech-driven means to improve some aspects of the NFL takes time and needs to be embraced by "old school" coaches, but it can be done. Who expected to see tablets computers used on the sidelines during games to review plays using video?
See the full story here: http://www.patriots.com/news/2015/05/28/tackling-tech-why-virtual-reality-will-become-reality-nfl
GoPro Working On A VR Camera Array And Quadcopter Drone
Today, GoPro announced that it was working on an array that combines six GoPro Hero cameras for spherical shots all at once. CEO Nick Woodman says that when Facebook bought Oculus, the ‘gauntlet was dropped’ and GoPro started work on a spherical setup that could generate content for virtual reality and augmented reality systems.
Woodman also said that the company has software in ‘alpha’ right now inside the company that allows users to auto-sync their GoPro cameras to the cloud so they can access their footage. This is still in the ‘early stages,’ Woodman said, but this would theoretically allow people to view and edit without ever “having to touch an SD card or touch a USB cord.
The company is also working on a quadcopter drone for aerial photography using GoPro cameras.
The array will be available in the second half of 2015. “This is really going to be most appealing for production companies and prosumers,” said Woodman. He added that ‘normal’ people would definitely end up buying it but the first version would be for pros. GoPro envisions this mount capturing video for VR and AR systems such as Oculus, HoloLens, Cardboard and YouTube 360 videos.
Oculus Story Studio Explores Ways to Make VR More Social
“Essentially, this allows two viewers (or more), each wearing an Oculus headset, to be a part of the same world and explore it simultaneously. In the case of ‘Lost Director’s Cut,’ the person giving the demo and I were both fireflies in the movie; we could look at each other or fly closer toward one another, all while a scene was taking place next to us. It’s breathtaking and weird at the same time, and that’s a good thing.”
According to Edward Saatchi, a Story Studio producer, “We think the future of VR in cinema is social, that you’re with your friends. You’re not in the same room, maybe; maybe you’re all going in together at the same time, and that’s where the lines between cinema and an MMO [massive multiplayer online] start to blur.”
See the full story here: http://www.etcentric.org/oculus-story-studio-explores-ways-to-make-vr-more-social/
Original post here: http://www.engadget.com/2015/05/25/oculus-social-experience/
Retinad’s Promising VR Ad and Analytics System is Now Backed with a $500,000 Investment
Retinad, a company working to bring immersive advertising and analytics to virtual reality, has just closed a $500,000 early-stage round to bring their solution to market. Avoiding the worst case banner-in-your-face approach, the company is jumping feet first into VR, bringing immersive (but not invasive) pre-roll ads and useful analytics tools that could be a hit with developers and advertisers alike.
The company is primarily pitching a ‘pre-roll’ approach which presents users with an immersive advertisement at the start of the VR game or experience. That ad can be a 360 video or photo, and it includes gaze-based action-points for user interaction like Skip, Like, and More Info.
Analytics
One of the features I found most compelling about Retinad’s system was their analytic heat maps which allow advertisers to see visually where users’ attention is drawn to throughout the course of the ad.
See the full story here: http://www.roadtovr.com/retinads-promising-vr-ad-and-analytics-system-is-now-backed-with-a-500000-investment/
PATENTS SHOWS WIDESPREAD AUGMENTED REALITY INNOVATION
We recently took another look at the companies that are actively patenting in this space, and identified over 2,300 US patents with claims related to AR and HMD platforms and devices. These patents cover a broad array of technologies specific to the augmented reality space, from display hardware and semiconductors, to software that drives image processing, network connectivity, and personalized content delivery.
Microvision Inc. topped our list as the largest US patent holder in this space, owning 233 US patents primarily related to hardware components for augmented reality systems, with a focus on miniaturized MEMS and PICO level systems.
Semiconductor Energy Laboratory Co. follows with over 200 US patents. The majority of its patents are directed towards semiconductor-level technologies for displays and imaging substrates.
Google is the next largest patent holder that we identified, with 117 US patents covering various physical hardware devices and related components, and software related to image-based user interfaces, user input technologies, and other user-experience applications.
Canon, LG Electronics, Sony, Microsoft, IBM, Siemens, and Samsung are also significant patent owners in this space. Other large companies which have a smaller number of issued US patents (<20) related to AR and HMD technology are Intel, Nokia, Apple, Qualcomm, Sharp, Panasonic and GE, defense contractors Lockheed, Boeing, Rockwell Collins and Raytheon, automotive manufacturers Ford and Honda, and entertainment giant Disney.
See the full story here: http://patentvue.com/2015/05/26/patents-shows-widespread-augmented-reality-innovation/
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